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    如果川普當選,中美關系將走向何方?(中英雙語)

     

    Trump on Tuesday won the Indiana primary, driving his chief rival Texas Senator Ted Cruz out of the presidential nomination race. One other candidate, John Kasich, governor of Ohio, on Wednesday said he has decided to suspend his presidential campaign, NBC News reported.

    川普在本周二的印第安納州初選中大勝而歸,從而導致其主要競爭對手德克薩斯州議員克魯茲放棄總統提名競選。據NBC新聞報道,另一位候選人、俄亥俄州州長卡拉奇也于周三的時候表示自己將棄選。

    On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to lead the nomination race against Senator Bernie Sanders, which leaves many believing that there will ultimately be a Clinton-Trump race for the White House.

    在民主黨方面,希拉里繼續領跑,在和桑德斯的較量中贏面較大,這導致外界廣泛認為入主白宮的角逐最終將在希拉里和川普之間展開。

    Eight Chinese analysts interviewed by the Global Times on Wednesday gave different predictions as to whether Trump could triumph over Clinton, with four believing that Trump’s odds are slight.

    周三的時候環球時報采訪了8位中國分析人士,他們就川普能否勝過希拉里給出了截然不同的預測,其中有4人認為川普目前的優勢是微不足道的。

    "Trump has a 30 percent chance of becoming president. He has to overcome a number of thresholds to win the Republican nomination first," Zhu Feng, executive director and professor at the China Center for Collaborative Studies of the South China Sea, told the Global Times.

    中國南海合作研究中心教授、執行董事朱峰(音)告訴環球日報,說:“川普有30%的勝率成為總統,他首先必須克服一系列障礙獲得共和黨的提名。”

    But Shao Yuqun, director of the Center for American Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, told the Global Times that the odds of Trump being able to gain at least 50 percent of the votes are increasing just as voters’ anger and distrust against the Obama administration grows.

    但是上海國際研究院美國研究中心主任邵育群(音)告訴環球時報,說川普目前獲得的優勢至少有50%僅僅是因為選民們對于奧巴馬執政的憤怒和不信任。

    Analysts also mentioned that lack of support from the mainstream in the US and Trump’s unpopularity among some GOP members due to his bold remarks may be to his disadvantage.

    分析人士還提到,川普缺少來自于美國主流大眾的支持,而且由于他的大膽言論,川普在共和黨內部也不太受歡迎,而這些都可能給他的競選活動帶來不利影響。

    According to Fox News, in his Tuesday speech, Trump spoke of the urgent need for unity within the Republican Party, saying that "it’s so much easier if we have it."

    據??怂剐侣劦膱蟮?,川普在周二的講話中指出共和黨內部迫切團結,并說“如果黨內團結一致的話,這場大選就容易得多了”。

    A New York Times/CBS News national poll released on March 21 found that 46 percent of Republican primary voters said they would like to see Trump win the GOP nomination, more than at any point since he declared his candidacy in June.

    一項由紐約時報和CBS新聞在3月21日發布的全國民意調查發現,有46%的共和黨初選選民說他們希望川普能夠贏得共和黨的提名資格,這一數值達到了自從川普去年6月份宣布參選以來的最高峰。

    "Unlike other politicians, Trump has impressed the public with his own political views, although most sound absurd. Chinese scholars have different views on Trump because of the controversial personal style he displayed in the election race. He surprised people by going so far," Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

    復旦大學美國研究中心主任吳心伯(音)在周三的時候告訴環球時報,說:“和其他政治家不同的是,盡管大多數觀點都很荒謬,但是川普用自己的政治觀點給公眾留下了深刻的印象。而由于川普在競選中表現出了如此特立獨行的個人風格,中國學者們對他的意見難以保持一致。他能夠走到這一步真是讓人驚訝。”

    Wu said that as a maverick nominee, Trump would make the final election unpredictable.

    吳心伯說,作為一個特立獨行的人,川普競選的最終結果將很難預測。

    According to a March poll conducted by huanqiu.com, the Chinese website affiliated with the Global Times, 54 percent of the 3,300 voters polled said they liked Trump.

    據環球時報環球網三月份的一份民調顯示,受調查的3300個選民中有54%的人表示他們喜歡川普。

    Some experts said some Chinese people’s preference for Trump comes from concern over Clinton’s tough stance toward China.

    一些專家指出,中國人對于川普的偏愛是因為對希拉里在中國問題上的強硬態度感到擔憂。

    Jia Qingguo, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, said that it is understandable that Trump is more popular than Clinton since the latter has often criticized China on cyber security and human rights.

    北京大學國際研究學院院長賈慶國(音)說,川普比希拉里更受中國人歡迎并不難理解,因為希拉里經常抨擊中國的網絡安全和人權問題。

    Others, like Diao Daming, a researcher at the Institute of American Studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said it is too early to draw any conclusions based on online surveys.

    其他一些分析人士,例如中國社科院美國研究所研究員刁大明(音)說,目前根據網絡調查數據來下結論還為時尚早。

    "Most Chinese know little about Trump’s political views or the US election. They regard Trump as an entertainer, not a serious politician," Diao noted.

    刁大明說道:“大多數中國人對川普的政治觀點或者美國大選一無所知,他們僅僅把川普當做一個逗樂的人,而不是一個嚴肅的政治家。”

    Six of the eight analysts agreed that the result of the final election would have limited influence on Sino-US relations due to the existing closeness in bilateral economic relations.

    受訪的8位分析人士中有6位表示,無論美國大選的最終結果如何,對中美關系的影響都有限,因為目前中美雙邊經濟關系已經十分牢固了。

    But Wang Yiwei, a foreign affairs scholar at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times that it may benefit Sino-US relations if Trump is elected, given his isolationist foreign policy.

    但是中國人民大學外事研究學者王義偉(音)告訴環球時報,說由于川普的孤立主義外交政策,他當選美國總統可能會有利于中美關系。

    "As a businessman, Trump is a realist and advocates the exchange of interests, which could help Sino-US relations make some substantial progress," Diao further noted.

    刁大明說道:“作為一個商人,川普是一個現實主義者,并且主張利益交換,而這將可能有助于中美關系取得一些實質性的進展。”

     

     


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